Brent crude oil prices will exceed $100 per barrel by July 15

Market overview

The escalation near Hormuz threatens global oil supply, as 20% of the world’s seaborne oil passes through the strait. Market reactions to past conflicts suggest a rapid spike in Brent prices, with geopolitical risk premiums likely to push prices above $100 by mid-July.

macro prediction market

Implied probability (Yes)

72%

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