Republican Senate majority drops below 53 by 2026-11-30

With McConnell hospitalized and Kentucky's special election law in place, any vacancy could shift the Senate's balance. If a vacancy occurs and a Democrat wins the seat in a special election, Republicans would lose their majority or fall below 53 seats.

geopolitics · Prediction Market

Implied probability (Yes)

40%

Closes

2026-11-30

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