Iran resumes full-scale military actions by August 2026

Following the announced end of the ceasefire, Iran is expected to resume full-scale military operations against regional targets, including proxy groups and direct strikes. Escalation in the Strait of Hormuz or attacks on Saudi oil facilities would signal a return to pre-ceasefire aggression.

geopolitics · Prediction Market

Implied probability (Yes)

75%

Closes

2026-08-15

More geopolitics markets

• Will a formal ceasefire framework be signed in a major active conflict zone by Q3 2026, leading to global oil benchmarks staying below $95 for the remainder of 2026? — 30% Yes
• Will global oil benchmarks (Brent/WTI) stay below $95 for the remainder of 2026? — 55% Yes
• Will a formal ceasefire framework be signed in at least one major active conflict zone by Q3 2026? — 60% Yes
• Lebanese government collapses by December 2027 due to crisis — 55% Yes
• US-EU diplomatic tensions rise over World Cup 2026 governance by October 2026 — 55% Yes
• UEFA formally condemns FIFA disciplinary committee actions by December 2026 — 72% Yes
• Western leaders will not attend Russia’s Victory Day parade in 2027 — 90% Yes
• Netanyahu’s influence on U.S. policy toward Turkey weakens — 75% Yes

Browse all geopolitics markets →