U.S. CPI inflation exceeds 4.5% year-over-year by December 2026

Market overview

Geopolitical-driven oil price spikes and supply chain disruptions from Iran conflict will push U.S. inflation above recent trends. Core services inflation will remain sticky, pushing headline CPI to 4.5% YoY by year-end 2026.

macro prediction market

Implied probability (Yes)

65%

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