Iran blocks Hormuz shipping lane for 48+ hours by 2026-07-31

In response to U.S. pressure or perceived weakness, Iran conducts a deliberate blockade of the Strait of Hormuz for at least two consecutive days by July 31, 2026. This would trigger a major international crisis and military posturing.

geopolitics · Prediction Market

Implied probability (Yes)

20%

Closes

2026-07-31

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