Sudan will again lead global internal displacements in 2026

Market overview

Sudan accounted for the largest share of conflict-driven internal displacements in 2025 (3rd consecutive year). Ongoing violence and instability in Darfur and Khartoum suggest no significant reduction in 2026. IDMC data shows Sudan's displacement trends are worsening at an annual rate of 40%.

macro prediction market

Implied probability (Yes)

82%

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