Will any of the five individuals charged in the alleged Russian-backed murder plots be successfully extradited to the United States by December 31, 2028?
Resolves: YES if at least one of the five individuals specifically named in the US charges is physically transferred into US custody via an extradition process by December 31, 2028. NO otherwise.
Will any of the five individuals charged in the alleged Russian-backe…
Market overview
Extradition processes, especially for individuals potentially located in Russia or allied nations, are notoriously difficult and time-consuming. Success within two years is possible but faces significant international legal and political hurdles.
World prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 30%
- Closes
- 2028-12-31
About this prediction
How this resolves
YES if at least one of the five individuals specifically named in the US charges is physically transferred into US custody via an extradition process by December 31, 2028. NO otherwise.
Source: user-generated
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