Fed maintains pause stance if April jobs growth is 50,000–85,000

Market overview

JPMorgan’s base case expects 50,000 jobs added in April, aligning with a 'low-hire, low-fire' labor market. Such growth would likely reinforce the Fed’s wait-and-see approach, delaying rate cuts or hikes. If payrolls grow between 50,000 and 85,000, the Fed will hold rates steady at its next meeting.

macro prediction market

Implied probability (Yes)

75%

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