user-generated· macro
Fed cuts interest rates by 25bps before December 2026
Market overview
Persistent job market pessimism and weakening economic indicators will force the Federal Reserve to implement a 25 basis point interest rate cut before the end of 2026. The decision will be framed as a preemptive measure to stabilize labor market sentiment.
macro prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 55%
More macro markets
- Labour loses 10% of its UK polling lead to Greens by 2027 — 68% Yes
- S&P 500 surpasses 6,500 by December 2027 — 70% Yes
- Highway Trust Fund revenue loss triggers 2027 infrastructure cuts — 60% Yes
- Australian coal exports to China fall 15% by Q4 2026 due to supply disruptions — 60% Yes
- Canadian dollar weakens against USD by 10% — 75% Yes
- Iran exports LPG volume rises 15% by Q4 2026 — 70% Yes
- US dollar strengthens against yuan by 5% within 6 months — 70% Yes
- NY budget passes with pension reform by June 30 — 70% Yes
Loading…