Will the United States and Iran sign a formal agreement to end hostilities by December 31, 2027?
Resolves: YES if a publicly announced, signed agreement between the U.S. and Iranian governments explicitly stating an end to hostilities or a comprehensive peace deal is reported by a major news agency (e.g., Reuters, AP, Axios) by the end of 2024. NO otherwise.
Will the United States and Iran sign a formal agreement to end hostil…
Market overview
The headline suggests a deal is close, indicating active negotiations. However, historical tensions and complexities of such agreements make a rapid, formal signing within the year uncertain.
World prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 30%
- Closes
- 2029-08-21
About this prediction
How this resolves
YES if a publicly announced, signed agreement between the U.S. and Iranian governments explicitly stating an end to hostilities or a comprehensive peace deal is reported by a major news agency (e.g., Reuters, AP, Axios) by the end of 2024. NO otherwise.
Source: user-generated
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