Labour leadership contest triggered by June 30 deadline

Market overview

If Sir Keir Starmer does not resign or set a leadership timetable by June 30, 2025, a formal leadership contest will be triggered by Labour MPs. This follows pressure from over 80 MPs and poor electoral results, increasing the likelihood of a challenge.

event prediction market

Implied probability (Yes)

75%

More event markets

• Scottish government orders Higher Maths exam review by November 2027 — 75% Yes
• Chuck Edwards resigns before probe concludes — 70% Yes
• Sudan overtakes Syria as top country for conflict-driven internal displacement — 85% Yes
• Witkoff Rubio-Qatar Deal Collapses Due to Geopolitical Risks — 60% Yes
• Kevin Kiley's petition fails to secure 218 signatures by end of 2026 — 65% Yes
• Frederica Wilson loses 2026 Florida primary bid — 62% Yes
• US Southwest faces record heatwave by May 18 2026 — 85% Yes
• Eurovision bans Israel for 2028 due to ongoing Gaza conflict — 55% Yes

Browse all event markets →