Fed holds rates steady in September 2026 amid China inflation shock

Market overview

The Fed will likely avoid rate hikes in September 2026 to assess the impact of China's soaring factory inflation on global inflation dynamics. Market expectations for a September hike will fade as the inflation shock in China heightens uncertainty.

macro prediction market

Implied probability (Yes)

65%

More macro markets

• Labour loses 10% of its UK polling lead to Greens by 2027 — 68% Yes
• S&P 500 surpasses 6,500 by December 2027 — 70% Yes
• Highway Trust Fund revenue loss triggers 2027 infrastructure cuts — 60% Yes
• Australian coal exports to China fall 15% by Q4 2026 due to supply disruptions — 60% Yes
• Canadian dollar weakens against USD by 10% — 75% Yes
• Iran exports LPG volume rises 15% by Q4 2026 — 70% Yes
• US dollar strengthens against yuan by 5% within 6 months — 70% Yes
• NY budget passes with pension reform by June 30 — 70% Yes

Browse all macro markets →