Iran reopens Strait of Hormuz to all ship traffic by 2026-08-15

Iran will reverse its closure of the Strait of Hormuz by mid-August 2026 due to international pressure, economic incentives, or informal negotiations with the U.S. The strait remains closed as of July 12, but escalating costs of blockade will force Iran to reopen it.

geopolitics · Prediction Market

Implied probability (Yes)

60%

Closes

2026-08-15

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