user-generated· geopolitics
Opposition Congress party gains polling lead in India within 6 months
The controversy over Modi’s dubious award and broader public dissatisfaction with transparency in governance will drive a measurable shift in voter sentiment. Polls will show the Congress party leading the BJP in national approval ratings by at least 3 percentage points by January 2027.
geopolitics · Prediction Market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 55%
- Closes
- 2027-01-03
More geopolitics markets
- Will a formal ceasefire framework be signed in at least one major active conflict zone by Q3 2026? — 60% Yes
- Will a formal ceasefire framework be signed in a major active conflict zone by Q3 2026, leading to global oil benchmarks staying below $95 for the remainder of 2026? — 30% Yes
- Will global oil benchmarks (Brent/WTI) stay below $95 for the remainder of 2026? — 55% Yes
- Lebanese government collapses by December 2027 due to crisis — 55% Yes
- US-EU diplomatic tensions rise over World Cup 2026 governance by October 2026 — 55% Yes
- UEFA formally condemns FIFA disciplinary committee actions by December 2026 — 72% Yes
- Western leaders will not attend Russia’s Victory Day parade in 2027 — 90% Yes
- Netanyahu’s influence on U.S. policy toward Turkey weakens — 75% Yes
Loading…