US and Iran fail to renew ceasefire by October 2026

The current Strait of Hormuz ceasefire is fragile and US strikes have heightened tensions. Negotiations are ongoing but failure to renew or formalize the ceasefire by October 2026 is likely due to retaliatory actions and mutual distrust.

geopolitics · Prediction Market

Implied probability (Yes)

72%

Closes

2026-10-15

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