The Iran-West ceasefire will collapse by March 2027

The ceasefire's fragility is exacerbated by unresolved issues, including sanctions relief, nuclear program constraints, and regional proxy conflicts. A major breach—such as a new Israeli strike or Iranian retaliation—will occur before Q1 2027.

geopolitics · Prediction Market

Implied probability (Yes)

78%

Closes

2027-03-31

More geopolitics markets

• Will a formal ceasefire framework be signed in at least one major active conflict zone by Q3 2026? — 60% Yes
• Will a formal ceasefire framework be signed in a major active conflict zone by Q3 2026, leading to global oil benchmarks staying below $95 for the remainder of 2026? — 30% Yes
• Will global oil benchmarks (Brent/WTI) stay below $95 for the remainder of 2026? — 55% Yes
• Lebanese government collapses by December 2027 due to crisis — 55% Yes
• US suspends all off-duty hikes in Morocco for 2 years — 55% Yes
• Iran escalates Strait of Hormuz disruptions within 30 days — 75% Yes
• Western leaders will not attend Russia’s Victory Day parade in 2027 — 90% Yes
• Qatar announces formal agreement with Iran by 2027-Q4 — 70% Yes

Browse all geopolitics markets →