Democrats maintain majority but Jeffries falls short in speaker vote
Resolves: Official vote tally shows Hakeem Jeffries does not receive 218 votes on the first ballot for Speaker of the House on January 3, 2027.
user-generated· politics
Democrats maintain majority but Jeffries falls short in speaker vote
Market overview
By January 3, 2027, House Democrats secure a majority in the 2026 midterms but fail to elect Hakeem Jeffries as speaker due to sustained opposition from a growing skeptical caucus. The rebellion prevents Jeffries from reaching the 218 votes needed despite no alternative candidate emerging.
politics prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 58%
- Closes
- 2027-01-03
About this prediction
Resolution criteria
Official vote tally shows Hakeem Jeffries does not receive 218 votes on the first ballot for Speaker of the House on January 3, 2027.
Source: user-generated
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