user-generated· Science
Will the CDC report over 1,000 confirmed measles cases in the U.S. fo…
Market overview
The headline indicates a record number of cases this year, suggesting a high baseline. Continued outbreaks and vaccine hesitancy could push the total higher, though public health interventions aim to contain spread.
Science prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 70%
- Closes
- 2026-11-30
About this prediction
How this resolves
YES if the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) officially reports a cumulative total of more than 1,000 confirmed measles cases for the period of January 1, 2024, to December 31, 2024. NO otherwise.
Source: user-generated
More Science markets
- Climate Policy breaks new record this year? — 72% Yes
- Carbon Nanotubes breaks new record this year? — 37% Yes
- Will CRISPR dominate headlines in the next 6-10 months? — 59% Yes
- Major Fusion Energy development by June 2027? — 24% Yes
- Will the total number of elephant deaths officially linked to this specific incident exceed 20 by 2024-10-01? — 0% Yes
- Will the CDC report over 500 confirmed US Cyclospora cases in 2024? — 45% Yes
- Will the UN Secretary-General publicly announce a major new global climate initiative with specific 2030 targets by 2027-09-23? — 60% Yes
- Will Starship achieve a successful orbital flight with payload deployment by June 30, 2025? — 65% Yes
No one's made a Conviction call on this yet. Be the first to call it →
Loading…