U.S. conducts airstrikes on Iranian military targets within 7 days

The U.S. will respond to Iran's resumption of attacks in the Strait of Hormuz with airstrikes targeting Iranian military assets. Historical patterns of U.S. retaliation in similar scenarios support this likelihood.

geopolitics · Prediction Market

Implied probability (Yes)

75%

Closes

2026-07-14

More geopolitics markets

• Will a formal ceasefire framework be signed in at least one major active conflict zone by Q3 2026? — 60% Yes
• Will global oil benchmarks (Brent/WTI) stay below $95 for the remainder of 2026? — 55% Yes
• Will a formal ceasefire framework be signed in a major active conflict zone by Q3 2026, leading to global oil benchmarks staying below $95 for the remainder of 2026? — 30% Yes
• Lebanese government collapses by December 2027 due to crisis — 55% Yes
• US-EU diplomatic tensions rise over World Cup 2026 governance by October 2026 — 55% Yes
• UEFA formally condemns FIFA disciplinary committee actions by December 2026 — 72% Yes
• Western leaders will not attend Russia’s Victory Day parade in 2027 — 90% Yes
• Netanyahu’s influence on U.S. policy toward Turkey weakens — 75% Yes

Browse all geopolitics markets →