U.S. unemployment rate rises above 4.5% by October 2026

Market overview

The stabilization in the labor market is described as fragile, with economists warning that rising energy costs from the Iran war will eventually pressure hiring and wage growth. The unemployment rate has remained below 4.5% since early 2026, but sustained higher oil prices are likely to erode job gains in energy-intensive sectors.

macro prediction market

Implied probability (Yes)

68%

Source: user-generated

More macro markets

• Labour loses 10% of its UK polling lead to Greens by 2027 — 68% Yes
• S&P 500 surpasses 6,500 by December 2027 — 70% Yes
• Highway Trust Fund revenue loss triggers 2027 infrastructure cuts — 60% Yes
• Australian coal exports to China fall 15% by Q4 2026 due to supply disruptions — 60% Yes
• Canadian dollar weakens against USD by 10% — 75% Yes
• Iran exports LPG volume rises 15% by Q4 2026 — 70% Yes
• US dollar strengthens against yuan by 5% within 6 months — 70% Yes
• NY budget passes with pension reform by June 30 — 70% Yes

Browse all macro markets →