Will Russia conduct a live-fire military exercise involving tactical nuclear weapons by December 31, 2027?
Resolves: YES if Russia publicly announces or is credibly reported to have conducted a live-fire exercise involving the detonation of a tactical nuclear weapon (even if a low-yield test) or a weapon explicitly designated as such in a military drill. NO otherwise.
Will Russia conduct a live-fire military exercise involving tactical…
Market overview
A more 'cavalier' Putin might be willing to engage in more overt nuclear signaling to intimidate adversaries. This question explores the possibility of Russia undertaking a highly provocative exercise involving the actual firing of a tactical nuclear weapon, even if simulated, to demonstrate capability.
World prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 20%
- Closes
- 2027-12-31
About this prediction
How this resolves
YES if Russia publicly announces or is credibly reported to have conducted a live-fire exercise involving the detonation of a tactical nuclear weapon (even if a low-yield test) or a weapon explicitly designated as such in a military drill. NO otherwise.
Source: user-generated
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