Iran halts attacks on commercial shipping in Strait of Hormuz within…

Given recent U.S. strikes on Iranian infrastructure and Trump’s willingness to escalate, Iran is likely to pause its attacks on commercial vessels to avoid further military punishment. A 14-day window accounts for potential retaliatory strikes and diplomatic backchannels.

geopolitics · Prediction Market

Implied probability (Yes)

70%

Closes

2026-07-23

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