Colombia-U.S. tariff resolution reduces coffee price volatility by Dec 2026
Resolves: Arabica coffee futures price volatility (30-day rolling standard deviation) decreases by 20% or more from July 2026 levels by December 31, 2026, following a formal tariff resolution between the U.S. and Colombia
user-generated· commodities
Colombia-U.S. tariff resolution reduces coffee price volatility by De…
Market overview
If the U.S. and Colombia reach a tariff agreement or de-escalate tensions by December 2026, Arabica coffee price volatility will decrease by at least 20%. This assumes a significant reduction in trade policy uncertainty.
commodities prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 60%
- Closes
- 2026-12-31
About this prediction
Resolution criteria
Arabica coffee futures price volatility (30-day rolling standard deviation) decreases by 20% or more from July 2026 levels by December 31, 2026, following a formal tariff resolution between the U.S. and Colombia
Source: user-generated
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