Labour Party drops below 35% in next UK national poll

Market overview

Starmer's EU reset strategy fails to recover lost support after local election drubbing, with polls showing Labour below 35% within 6 weeks. Economic dissatisfaction and Brexit divisions continue to erode base.

macro prediction market

Implied probability (Yes)

75%

Source: user-generated

More macro markets

• Oil demand in the U.S. increases by 2% in Q3 2026 due to lower prices — 70% Yes
• Fed cuts interest rates by 50bps by Dec 2026 — 72% Yes
• South African flood-related economic losses top R50 billion by August 2026 — 70% Yes
• Ghana’s 2026 flood-related infrastructure damage exceeds $50M by 2026-12-31 — 70% Yes
• European Union to allocate €2 billion for deep-sea protection by 2029 — 55% Yes
• S&P 500 closes higher after April PPI report — 70% Yes
• Swiss National Bank signals rate cut following Amazon bond sale — 60% Yes
• US Army invests $500M in Moroccan military infrastructure by 2028 — 60% Yes

Browse all macro markets →