UK GDP growth slows in Q2 2027 due to Iranian conflict impact

Market overview

The surge in March growth was driven by front-loaded spending ahead of expected price rises from the Iran war. As the full effects of the conflict materialize, UK GDP growth in Q2 2025 will decline to 0.1% or lower.

macro prediction market

Implied probability (Yes)

78%

Closes

2027-12-31

Source: user-generated

More macro markets

• 10-year Treasury yield exceeds 5% by Q4 2026 due to Fed oversight — 67% Yes
• US AI hardware exports to China exceed $5 billion in 2026 — 55% Yes
• S&P 500 peaks by October 2026 before 10% correction — 70% Yes
• Virgin Media share of UK broadband market drops below 20% by March 2027 — 65% Yes
• Ukraine aid funding drops 20% in next federal budget cycle — 70% Yes
• Nikkei 225 drops below 35,000 by June 2027 amid BoJ tightening — 60% Yes
• Venezuela's GDP contracts by more than 10% in 2026 — 78% Yes
• India’s GDP growth exceeds 7% in FY 2027 — 68% Yes

Browse all macro markets →