Will there be another incident involving a weapon on the University of Surrey campus resulting in injury or death by December 31, 2026?
Resolves: YES if any incident involving a weapon (e.g., knife, firearm, crossbow) occurs on the University of Surrey campus that results in physical injury or death to any individual, as reported by credible news sources or official university statements, by the end date. NO otherwise.
Will there be another incident involving a weapon on the University o…
Market overview
This question explores the broader safety implications for the university following the attack. While security measures may be enhanced, preventing all future incidents is challenging.
World prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 15%
- Closes
- 2026-12-31
About this prediction
How this resolves
YES if any incident involving a weapon (e.g., knife, firearm, crossbow) occurs on the University of Surrey campus that results in physical injury or death to any individual, as reported by credible news sources or official university statements, by the end date. NO otherwise.
Source: user-generated
More World markets
- Will Australian Open dominate headlines in the next 12-18 months? — 30% Yes
- Will a documentary or major film about the conviction of Duane 'Keffe D' Davis be released by the end of 2026? — 70% Yes
- Will any major national news outlet (e.g., CNN, Fox News, NYT, Washington Post) publish a follow-up article on the California couple's legal proceedings by September 29, 2027? — 70% Yes
- Will the name 'Lake America' be officially adopted for Lake Ontario by any governing body by January 20, 2029? — 2% Yes
- Will the 'Bullet-Riddled Car' exhibit featuring Hind Rajab's car remain on public display in Berlin for at least 30 consecutive days? — 70% Yes
- Will Converse announce a new partnership with a prominent social justice or anti-racism organization by December 31, 2027? — 60% Yes
- Will a unified, internationally recognized government be formed in Libya by June 30, 2026? — 30% Yes
- Will the Aoba Castle site see an increase of at least 10% in annual tourist visitors in 2026 compared to 2023 levels? — 45% Yes