Fed under Warsh cuts rates before Q4 2026

Market overview

Warsh has signaled a willingness to cut rates based on his 1990s-style supply boom thesis. Despite recent inflation resurgence, political pressure and market expectations could force a premature easing cycle.

macro prediction market

Implied probability (Yes)

60%

Source: user-generated

More macro markets

• Venezuela's GDP contracts by more than 5% in 2026 due to quake impact — 80% Yes
• U.S. military spending on Middle East maritime security will rise by 2027 — 65% Yes
• UK gilt yields rise above 5% by end of October 2027 — 60% Yes
• UN allocates $500M for glacial flood adaptation by 2028 — 60% Yes
• Boston Fed President Collins dissents again by December 2028 — 55% Yes
• Notion's market cap exceeds $20 billion by Q3 2027 — 62% Yes
• India's sugar export ban leads to domestic price inflation — 72% Yes
• EU wildfire emergency response fund to exceed €500m by December 2026 — 70% Yes

Browse all macro markets →