John Curtis will secure at least 25% of the primary vote in 2028

Market overview

Despite facing a crowded field, Curtis' Senate experience and statewide appeal will ensure he captures a significant share of the primary vote. His fundraising network and incumbency advantages will translate to strong performance.

elections prediction market

Implied probability (Yes)

65%

More elections markets

• Reform UK gains more seats than Labour in 2028 general election — 60% Yes
• GOP gains Tennessee’s 9th congressional seat in 2026 midterms — 80% Yes
• Tennessee Democrats gain seats in 2026 midterms due to redistricting delay — 70% Yes
• Democrats replace Platner with candidate polling stronger than him — 72% Yes
• Jim Clyburn loses reelection bid in South Carolina's 6th district — 85% Yes
• Rep. Steve Cohen loses reelection in 2026 after redistricting — 80% Yes
• Susan Collins leads her Democratic opponent by at least 5 points in Maine polls by October 2026 — 75% Yes
• Susan Collins retains Senate seat with 5+ point margin — 70% Yes

Browse all elections markets →