Reform UK gains more seats than Labour in 2028 general election

Market overview

Reform UK will surpass Labour in seat count in the next general election due to voter dissatisfaction with Labour's leadership and policy direction. This will mark a significant shift in UK politics.

elections prediction market

Implied probability (Yes)

60%

Closes

2028-12-31

More elections markets

• GOP gains Tennessee’s 9th congressional seat in 2026 midterms — 80% Yes
• Tennessee Democrats gain seats in 2026 midterms due to redistricting delay — 70% Yes
• Democrats replace Platner with candidate polling stronger than him — 72% Yes
• Jim Clyburn loses reelection bid in South Carolina's 6th district — 85% Yes
• John Curtis will secure at least 25% of the primary vote in 2028 — 65% Yes
• Rep. Steve Cohen loses reelection in 2026 after redistricting — 80% Yes
• Susan Collins leads her Democratic opponent by at least 5 points in Maine polls by October 2026 — 75% Yes
• Susan Collins retains Senate seat with 5+ point margin — 70% Yes

Browse all elections markets →