Federal student loan delinquency rate rises 0.5% by 2026-11-30 due to SAVE exit
Resolves: Federal Reserve or U.S. Department of Education data shows the federal student loan delinquency rate increased by 0.5 percentage points or more compared to the rate as of 2026-06-30.
Federal student loan delinquency rate rises 0.5% by 2026-11-30 due to…
Market overview
As 6.9 million borrowers exit the SAVE plan and transition to new repayment options, some borrowers may face temporary confusion or delays in enrollment, leading to a measurable increase in delinquency rates. The delinquency rate for federal student loans is expected to rise by at least 0.5 percentage points by November 30, 2026.
macro prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 62%
- Closes
- 2026-11-30
About this prediction
Resolution criteria
Federal Reserve or U.S. Department of Education data shows the federal student loan delinquency rate increased by 0.5 percentage points or more compared to the rate as of 2026-06-30.
Source: user-generated
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