Will Iran completely block the Strait of Hormuz to all maritime traffic for at least 24 consecutive hours before December 31, 2028?
Resolves: YES if credible international shipping monitors (e.g., Lloyd's List, MarineTraffic) confirm no commercial or military vessel transits the Strait of Hormuz for a continuous 24-hour period. NO otherwise.
Will Iran completely block the Strait of Hormuz to all maritime traff…
Market overview
The headline indicates Iran's vow to 'completely' block the Strait of Hormuz. While such threats are common, a full, sustained blockage is a significant escalation with global repercussions, making it a low probability event. This question focuses on a verifiable, complete blockage.
World prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 5%
- Closes
- 2030-08-30
About this prediction
How this resolves
YES if credible international shipping monitors (e.g., Lloyd's List, MarineTraffic) confirm no commercial or military vessel transits the Strait of Hormuz for a continuous 24-hour period. NO otherwise.
Source: user-generated
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