Will the United States engage in a new declared war with Iran by the end of 2028?
Resolves: The United States formally declares war on Iran, or engages in sustained military action against Iran that is widely characterized as a 'war' by major international news organizations (e.g., Reuters, AP, BBC).
Will the United States engage in a new declared war with Iran by the…
Market overview
The candidate's comment about an 'Iran war' becoming a 'political liability' suggests a perceived risk of such a conflict. This question directly addresses the possibility of a new declared war. Resolution will be based on official declarations or military actions.
World prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 15%
- Closes
- 2030-08-31
About this prediction
How this resolves
The United States formally declares war on Iran, or engages in sustained military action against Iran that is widely characterized as a 'war' by major international news organizations (e.g., Reuters, AP, BBC).
Source: user-generated
More World markets
- Will Australian Open dominate headlines in the next 12-18 months? — 30% Yes
- Will a documentary or major film about the conviction of Duane 'Keffe D' Davis be released by the end of 2026? — 70% Yes
- Will any major national news outlet (e.g., CNN, Fox News, NYT, Washington Post) publish a follow-up article on the California couple's legal proceedings by September 29, 2027? — 70% Yes
- Will the name 'Lake America' be officially adopted for Lake Ontario by any governing body by January 20, 2029? — 2% Yes
- Will the 'Bullet-Riddled Car' exhibit featuring Hind Rajab's car remain on public display in Berlin for at least 30 consecutive days? — 70% Yes
- Will Converse announce a new partnership with a prominent social justice or anti-racism organization by December 31, 2027? — 60% Yes
- Will a unified, internationally recognized government be formed in Libya by June 30, 2026? — 30% Yes
- Will the Aoba Castle site see an increase of at least 10% in annual tourist visitors in 2026 compared to 2023 levels? — 45% Yes