Iceland avoids new EU referendum by end-2027

Market overview

No new referendum on EU accession or reopening talks initiated by Dec 31, 2027.

event prediction market

Implied probability (Yes)

80%

Closes

2027-12-31

More event markets

• Scottish government orders Higher Maths exam review by November 2027 — 75% Yes
• Chuck Edwards resigns before probe concludes — 70% Yes
• Sudan overtakes Syria as top country for conflict-driven internal displacement — 85% Yes
• Witkoff Rubio-Qatar Deal Collapses Due to Geopolitical Risks — 60% Yes
• Kevin Kiley's petition fails to secure 218 signatures by end of 2026 — 65% Yes
• Frederica Wilson loses 2026 Florida primary bid — 62% Yes
• US Southwest faces record heatwave by May 18 2026 — 85% Yes
• Eurovision bans Israel for 2028 due to ongoing Gaza conflict — 55% Yes

Browse all event markets →