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U.S. Arabica coffee retail prices rise 25% by Q4 2026

Resolves: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reports a 25% or higher year-over-year increase in the average retail price of Arabica coffee in Q4 2026.

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U.S. Arabica coffee retail prices rise 25% by Q4 2026

Market overview

U.S. retail prices for Arabica coffee will increase by at least 25% by the fourth quarter of 2026 due to sustained supply chain disruptions and tariff costs. This will mark the largest year-over-year price hike in over a decade.

price prediction market

Implied probability (Yes)
80%
Closes
2026-12-31

About this prediction

Resolution criteria

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reports a 25% or higher year-over-year increase in the average retail price of Arabica coffee in Q4 2026.

Source: user-generated

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