user-generated· Science
Will the controversial vaccine trial in Guinea-Bissau, touted by RFK…
Market overview
The headline indicates a controversial vaccine trial has received approval in Guinea-Bissau. Given the 'controversial' nature and RFK Jr.'s involvement, the trial's success is uncertain, but some trials do report positive outcomes. This question asks about the trial's reported efficacy.
Science prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 30%
- Closes
- 2027-12-31
About this prediction
How this resolves
YES if the trial's primary investigators or official regulatory bodies publicly announce positive efficacy results for the vaccine by December 31, 2027. NO otherwise.
Source: user-generated
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