Starmer will lose a no-confidence vote by December 2028

Market overview

With over 80 Labour MPs calling for Starmer's resignation and growing internal dissent, there is a high likelihood of a no-confidence motion. The lack of a unified challenger weakens Starmer's position but increases the risk of a vote.

leadership prediction market

Implied probability (Yes)

75%

Closes

2028-12-31

Source: user-generated

More leadership markets

• Rivian appoints new permanent CFO by year-end 2026 — 65% Yes
• Labour Party will replace Keir Starmer as leader by 2028 — 75% Yes
• Labour Party will replace Starmer by March 2028 — 60% Yes
• Nigel Farage resigns as Reform UK leader before 2027-03-31 — 60% Yes
• Wes Streeting will formally challenge Keir Starmer by July 12 — 75% Yes
• Marco Rubio will resign from cabinet before 2028 election — 45% Yes
• Elon Musk to publicly address Cybercab by Q4 2026 — 65% Yes
• Selena Gomez will step down from Wondermind by 2027 — 60% Yes

Browse all leadership markets →