Labour Party will replace Starmer by March 2028

Market overview

If Starmer loses a no-confidence vote or faces sustained rebellion, the Labour Party will likely trigger a leadership contest by early 2025. The party's preference for stability suggests a replacement would be chosen within 3 months of a vote.

leadership prediction market

Implied probability (Yes)

60%

Closes

2028-12-31

Source: user-generated

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