Will Iran enrich uranium to 90% purity (weapons-grade) by December 31, 2027?
Resolves: YES if the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) or a credible, independent nuclear monitoring body publicly confirms that Iran has enriched uranium to 90% purity by December 31, 2024. NO otherwise.
Will Iran enrich uranium to 90% purity (weapons-grade) by December 31…
Market overview
The lack of a breakthrough in war implies continued nuclear escalation by Iran. While 90% is a significant step, Iran has been steadily increasing enrichment levels. This question gauges the extent of that escalation in the absence of diplomatic solutions.
World prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 35%
- Closes
- 2029-08-23
About this prediction
How this resolves
YES if the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) or a credible, independent nuclear monitoring body publicly confirms that Iran has enriched uranium to 90% purity by December 31, 2024. NO otherwise.
Source: user-generated
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