US nonresidential fixed investment growth slows by Q4 2026
Resolves: US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) data shows nonresidential fixed investment growth of less than 3% year-over-year in Q4 2026, down from 6.5% or higher in prior quarters.
user-generated· macro
US nonresidential fixed investment growth slows by Q4 2026
Market overview
Temasek's warning about overcapacity from a US capex surge will materialize as growth in nonresidential fixed investment decelerates by Q4 2026. Rising interest rates and diminishing returns on aggressive capex will temper corporate spending.
macro prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 70%
- Closes
- 2026-12-31
About this prediction
Resolution criteria
US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) data shows nonresidential fixed investment growth of less than 3% year-over-year in Q4 2026, down from 6.5% or higher in prior quarters.
Source: user-generated
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