Steve Cohen loses reelection due to redistricting in 2026

Market overview

Rep. Steve Cohen’s Memphis-area seat is fragmented under the new map, placing him in a more competitive or unfavorable district. Polling and historical trends suggest he is unlikely to survive the redistricting changes.

election prediction market

Implied probability (Yes)

80%

More election markets

• Kiggans wins reelection in 2026 — 60% Yes
• Democratic candidate wins 2026 Senate race using MAGA tactics — 30% Yes
• Cory Mills loses re-election — 45% Yes
• Jim Renacci announces candidacy for OH-07 — 50% Yes
• SC’s 6th District flips Democratic in 2028 election — 60% Yes
• Kiggans will win reelection despite controversy — 55% Yes
• Kiggans loses 2026 Virginia House race — 70% Yes
• Susan Collins retains Senate seat in 2026 election despite Democratic replacement — 75% Yes

Browse all election markets →