S&P 500 productivity growth declines below 1.5% in 2028
Resolves: S&P 500 annual productivity growth (output per hour) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics falls below 1.5% for calendar year 2028
user-generated· macro
S&P 500 productivity growth declines below 1.5% in 2028
Market overview
Tighter immigration policies restrict high-skilled labor inflows, reducing productivity gains in key sectors. The Federal Reserve's 2026 projections indicate productivity growth averaging 1.6% annually through 2027, creating a downward pressure scenario for 2028.
macro prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 68%
- Closes
- 2028-12-31
About this prediction
Resolution criteria
S&P 500 annual productivity growth (output per hour) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics falls below 1.5% for calendar year 2028
Source: user-generated
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