Will any commercial vessel be confirmed to have struck a naval mine in the Strait of Hormuz by September 30, 2028?
Resolves: Official confirmation from a national government, a shipping company, or a reputable international maritime organization (e.g., IMO) that a commercial vessel has struck a naval mine within the Strait of Hormuz.
user-generated· World
Will any commercial vessel be confirmed to have struck a naval mine i…
Market overview
While mining claims are serious, actual incidents involving commercial shipping are less common without direct conflict. However, if 'large segments' are mined, the risk increases.
World prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 20%
- Closes
- 2030-09-01
About this prediction
How this resolves
Official confirmation from a national government, a shipping company, or a reputable international maritime organization (e.g., IMO) that a commercial vessel has struck a naval mine within the Strait of Hormuz.
Source: user-generated
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