Will the US or Iran publicly state that negotiations for a nuclear deal have completely broken down by September 30, 2028?
Resolves: YES if either the US Secretary of State or the Iranian Foreign Minister (or their direct official representatives) publicly declares that negotiations for a nuclear deal have ended without an agreement and will not resume in the foreseeable future. NO otherwise.
Will the US or Iran publicly state that negotiations for a nuclear de…
Market overview
While a deal might be close, negotiations can still collapse. This question assesses the risk of a definitive failure in the ongoing talks within the next few months.
World prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 20%
- Closes
- 2030-08-27
About this prediction
How this resolves
YES if either the US Secretary of State or the Iranian Foreign Minister (or their direct official representatives) publicly declares that negotiations for a nuclear deal have ended without an agreement and will not resume in the foreseeable future. NO otherwise.
Source: user-generated
More World markets
- Will Australian Open dominate headlines in the next 12-18 months? — 30% Yes
- Will there be a confirmed military intervention by a non-regional power in the Strait of Hormuz by March 31, 2027? — 30% Yes
- Will any major national news outlet (e.g., CNN, Fox News, NYT, Washington Post) publish a follow-up article on the California couple's legal proceedings by September 29, 2027? — 70% Yes
- Will the United Nations Security Council pass a resolution by January 1, 2027, calling for a moratorium on the development of lethal autonomous weapons systems? — 30% Yes
- Will Converse announce a new partnership with a prominent social justice or anti-racism organization by December 31, 2027? — 60% Yes
- Will 'The Churchill Arms' be mentioned in a major London tourism guide (e.g., Lonely Planet, Time Out London) by December 31, 2028? — 80% Yes
- Will the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) report that Iran has enriched uranium to 90% purity by December 31, 2027? — 30% Yes
- Will the United Nations Security Council pass a new resolution imposing additional sanctions on Iran before October 1, 2027? — 20% Yes