Will the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) be formally reinstated or a new comprehensive nuclear deal with Iran be announced by December 31, 2028?
Resolves: YES if official statements from at least two of the P5+1 nations (China, France, Russia, United Kingdom, United States, plus Germany) and Iran confirm the formal reinstatement of the JCPOA or the announcement of a new comprehensive nuclear deal by the specified date. NO otherwise.
Will the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) be formally reins…
Market overview
The 'Iran hopes' mentioned in the headline likely refer to a potential de-escalation of tensions or a diplomatic breakthrough regarding its nuclear program. While a full reinstatement of the JCPOA is ambitious, a new, less comprehensive deal or significant steps towards one could be considered. However, historical difficulties in negotiations make a full agreement unlikely in the short term.
World prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 20%
- Closes
- 2030-08-23
About this prediction
How this resolves
YES if official statements from at least two of the P5+1 nations (China, France, Russia, United Kingdom, United States, plus Germany) and Iran confirm the formal reinstatement of the JCPOA or the announcement of a new comprehensive nuclear deal by the specified date. NO otherwise.
Source: user-generated
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