Blog
News Hub in Practice: From Politico Headlines to Live Odds
The News Hub currently lists 200 active predictions, with a dense Politico/Wisconsin cluster. Here is how NGP is supposed to work — and how to avoid trading the same headline five times.
- Published
- 2026-08-14
- Author
- Sarah Chen
Article
Headlines are not markets until they have a rule Predictagon’s turns articles from AP, Reuters, Bloomberg, Politico, and others into contracts with a probability. The (News Generated Predictions) pipeline is the factory: a story crosses a relevance threshold, a model proposes title, resolution criteria, and an initial probability, and the market can go live while the article is still on the homepage. That is the product pitch. The operational reality on August 14: News Hub shows 200 active rows, while the NGP drop list is thin (a single CNN URL with a null probability at last check). Use News Hub as the live catalog; treat NGP as the experimental feed until it is densely populated again. How to read a news derived contract Ask four questions before you click: 1. What document resolves this? A named election result, an agency print, a company 8 K — not “the discourse.” 2.…