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How to Use the ARB Terminal: Cross-Venue Mispricings Without the Noise
The Mispricing Radar lists 100 live signals across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Predictagon fair value. A lot of them are clustered. Here is a filter stack that keeps you out of junk arb.
- Published
- 2026-08-14
- Author
- James Mitchell
Article
What the ARB Terminal is for The (Mispricing Radar) compares implied probabilities across venues — Kalshi, Polymarket, Zeitgeist, and Predictagon’s own AI fair value — and ranks divergences. Each row should be a pair of prices on the same event , not a vibe. This morning the radar shows 100 signals . A large share of the first page is cluster items, plus a handful of Zeitgeist “breaks a new record this year” contracts. That is the audit finding: the tool works, the default sort does not always equal a trade. A filter stack that actually pays 1. Same resolution text. If venue A resolves on “public statement by date X” and venue B resolves on “indictment by date Y,” that is not arb. It is two markets. Read both rules. 2. Same calendar. A March 2026 expiry sitting on an August 14 radar is either stale or a long…