Farage’s Clacton campaign fails to shift Reform’s polling decline

Market overview

Reform UK’s national polling drops below 10% by the end of August 2026, despite Farage’s high-profile Clacton campaign. The party’s financial and organizational struggles outweigh his personal appeal in this by-election.

politics prediction market

Implied probability (Yes)

75%

Closes

2026-08-31

More politics markets

• JD Vance partnership or acquisition announced? — 44% Yes
• Kim Jong Un faces significant controversy? — 57% Yes
• Will Unicorn Companies dominate headlines in the next 6-10 months? — 77% Yes
• Will new charges be filed related to Donald Trump by H1 2026? — 18% Yes
• Will Donald Trump reach a settlement in Epstein-related lawsuits by June 2026? — 7% Yes
• Will Bill Clinton be subpoenaed in connection with Epstein case by Q2 2026? — 64% Yes
• Will Donald Trump make public statements about Epstein connections by March 2026? — 86% Yes
• Will Bill Clinton be subpoenaed in connection with Epstein case by Q1 2026? — 27% Yes

Browse all politics markets →