China's foreign reserves to decline by at least 5% by December 2026

A weaker yuan and potential intervention to stabilize the currency will reduce foreign reserves, as the PBOC sells dollars to buy yuan. Reserves are likely to fall below $3.0 trillion by December 2026.

macro · Prediction Market

Implied probability (Yes)

70%

Closes

2026-12-31

More macro markets

• Labour loses 10% of its UK polling lead to Greens by 2027 — 68% Yes
• S&P 500 surpasses 6,500 by December 2027 — 70% Yes
• Highway Trust Fund revenue loss triggers 2027 infrastructure cuts — 60% Yes
• Australian coal exports to China fall 15% by Q4 2026 due to supply disruptions — 60% Yes
• Iran exports LPG volume rises 15% by Q4 2026 — 70% Yes
• IDMC annual report shows 40m+ total displacements in 2026 — 80% Yes
• US dollar strengthens against yuan by 5% within 6 months — 70% Yes
• NY budget passes with pension reform by June 30 — 70% Yes

Browse all macro markets →