user-generated· macro
Brent crude exceeds $120 per barrel by mid-August 2026
Recent strikes disrupted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil chokepoint. Sustained supply fears and geopolitical risk premiums will likely push Brent crude above $120/bbl as inventories tighten and shipping costs surge.
macro · Prediction Market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 75%
- Closes
- 2026-08-15
More macro markets
- Labour loses 10% of its UK polling lead to Greens by 2027 — 68% Yes
- S&P 500 surpasses 6,500 by December 2027 — 70% Yes
- Highway Trust Fund revenue loss triggers 2027 infrastructure cuts — 60% Yes
- Australian coal exports to China fall 15% by Q4 2026 due to supply disruptions — 60% Yes
- Iran exports LPG volume rises 15% by Q4 2026 — 70% Yes
- IDMC annual report shows 40m+ total displacements in 2026 — 80% Yes
- US dollar strengthens against yuan by 5% within 6 months — 70% Yes
- NY budget passes with pension reform by June 30 — 70% Yes
Loading…