Kiley's independent caucus grows to 15+ members by 2028

Market overview

Rep. Kiley's shift to independent status and advocacy for redistricting reform will attract at least 15 House members to join a formal independent caucus by the 2028 election cycle. Growth will be driven by lawmakers from swing districts displaced by midcycle redistricting, particularly in California and Ohio.

politics prediction market

Implied probability (Yes)

55%

More politics markets

• JD Vance partnership or acquisition announced? — 44% Yes
• Kim Jong Un faces significant controversy? — 57% Yes
• Will Unicorn Companies dominate headlines in the next 6-10 months? — 77% Yes
• Will new charges be filed related to Donald Trump by H1 2026? — 18% Yes
• Will Donald Trump reach a settlement in Epstein-related lawsuits by June 2026? — 7% Yes
• Will Bill Clinton be subpoenaed in connection with Epstein case by Q2 2026? — 64% Yes
• Will Donald Trump make public statements about Epstein connections by March 2026? — 86% Yes
• Will Bill Clinton be subpoenaed in connection with Epstein case by Q1 2026? — 27% Yes

Browse all politics markets →